Could We Avoid This Tragedy?

Could We Avoid This Tragedy?
Dear friends,
Everybody here are asking themselves if we could avoid the tragedy.
Here are some thoughts. To have more precise answer I need to divide it into two parts:
1. Time before April Summit of NATO in Bucharest
2. Time after April, 2008

Time before April Summit of NATO in Bucharest

Probably we could avoid such a big tragedy. Despite of the fact that all the conflicts in Georgia were designed and organized by KGB we had some chances to avoid it. This way could be very long and absolutely free of politics. It is about free trade and exchange we needed to have with our citizens in conflict regions. For instance: we needed not only to try to open the railway from our side to Abkhazia but also ask Russia to open from their side. Instead we blocked conflict region people and broken already established relationship of Georgians and Ossetians.
Unfortunately all other versions of solution were political and they would be wrong not only because they were political but because Russians (when I say Russians – I always mean politicians) don’t care about political decisions or agreements (this was once more proven today again).

Time after April, 2008

It is very doubtful if we could avoid the scenario.

• Oil – of course it is about domination of Russia in energy supply of Europe. Georgia for its headache is the only alternative route for Caspian oil and gas (the other ways are though Russia) – who is not aware of this please look at the map of the region
• Taking power over Georgia means automatically cutting Azerbaijan and whole Central Asia from other then Russian controlled access to the world. (I assume everybody is aware of Iran – Russia alliance.)
  Kosovo – Russia wanted to play the same game in Georgia as in Serbia. No matter if this is absolutely different case.
• Having in mind NATO’s failure in April Russians as it was expected by many in Georgia understood this as a step back of NATO and signal for actions for Russia. Having in mind long history of relationship with Russia we had these predictions and warned as many people as we could. That time we could believe in a new conflict but not as big as it really happened unfortunately.
• Could Georgia announce neutrality? Some Georgian politicians supported this idea. Discussions on this idea can be somewhat actual in future as some assume Georgia’s membership in NATO is less likely. Is it really possible? If you were in Georgia I would simply offer to look around. So many tense you can find in the region, and so many interests. Think – can we open the railway via Abkhazia? Beware of a quick answer – understand who is interested and who is against. I think here I need to stop counting of the problems. If you look in the realities of the region deeper only NATO membership of Georgia can establish a new situation which could stop everybody thinking about changing the status quo.
• Some people tend to address responsibility of the tragedy towards the government of Georgia. I clearly and openly declared several times that I never voted for Saakashvili and his government (although I didn’t vote for others). I have good opinion of many reforms done by them but not so good about political system and protection of citizens freedoms. Government policy of allowing any person of the world to come and start working in Georgia without restriction shows openness and willingness of Georgians to live in freedom.
• The provocation was planned very well. Everything shows this. This or any other government would be catch by this political trap. Look in this situation. You are the country leader - means politicians. This already implies you need to do something but keep your positions. If you want to keep your position in the situation like in Georgia, especially when you were told that conflicts are the obstacle to be in NATO (or have more security, have more investments, be a part of western society, etc) – you need to do something and before the next summit of NATO in December. You know that Russia has absolute opposite goal. You try to offer something to conflict regional leaders – Russians keep out them from negotiations. Georgians stay calm – they shoot. Georgians try to talk – they shoot and rob Georgian villages. Georgians ask for cease fire – they used this time for bringing more troops and continued shooting. Are there many politicians in the world who would be so brave to take back troops? I doubt.
• Somebody was asking who started shooting – I think this is not clever question. Shooting Russians started earlier, for instance in 1921, when occupied independent Georgia, in 1924, when killed 30,000 Georgian rebels,1956 and 1989 when killed peaceful protesters in Tbilisi, in 1992 when supported criminals of separatist Abkhazia and their allies, during all the following years, everyday, almost every hour. There were many proofs of this, but somebody needed to see real blood now to be sure we were correct.
• Thinking about politics and its rules I think it is not for me. It is not for me - but another thing is to find the alternative. Best of worse. I remember the German Chancellor who was very harsh to us for our conflicts in Abkhazia and so called South Ossetia. That time I told to my friend Germans - this is we who blame German and other governments for doing nothing to participate in the process of peace and re-integration of those regions into Georgia. This is again about politics - we can't expect from politicians more than a show how they spend money for nothing - just a show.
  

Therefore it is for me very doubtful there were any other chances.
Here I stop and maybe try to add something later.